Publicação on-line; Bibliography p. 11-13 (52 ref.); 3 tables; 5 illus.; Summary (En)

ABSTRACT

Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of
exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical
distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim
of this study was to estimate and map current and future ecological niche for E. erythropappus in
Minas Gerais. We used the Random Forests algorithm to model the ecological niche for current
and future climates scenarios. Our predictions indicate Espinhaço, Mantiqueira, and Canastra
mountain ranges as core areas of distribution and forecast drastic reductions in potential areas
under all climate scenarios. Based on our results, we highlight that the continual harvesting of
naturally-occurring E. erythropappus populations will not be sufficient to supply the market
demand. Silviculture practices would likely serve as an economically viable and ecological
sustainable alternative to harvesting natural populations.

Keywords: candeia trees, random forests, habitat suitability.