Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia
Material type:
ArticleSubject(s): Online resources:
In:
Floresta e Ambiente (Brazil) v. 26(3) p. 1-11; (2019)Summary:
ABSTRACT
This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three
scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were
constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia
deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia
State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on
this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be
fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios,
respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially
concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could
be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario.
In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.
Keywords: land use change, fragmentation, disorderly occupation.
| Item type | Current library | Collection | Call number | Vol info | Status | Date due | Barcode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Periódicos
|
Biblioteca Nacional de Agricultura - Binagri Agrobase - Periódicos | Periódicos agrícolas | 2019 26(3) | Online | 2025-0451 |
Publicação on-line; 30 ref.; 7 illus.; Summary (En)
ABSTRACT
This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three
scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were
constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia
deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia
State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on
this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be
fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios,
respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially
concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could
be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario.
In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.
Keywords: land use change, fragmentation, disorderly occupation.
BINAGRI