Publicação on-line; 28 ref.; 4 tables; 5 illus.; Summary (En)

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess and compare two methodologies to predict the mortality of individual trees
in a seasonal semi-deciduous forest located in the municipality of Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The data came from
10 permanent plots and were randomly divided into two groups: fitting (6 plots) and validation (4 plots). When
assessing Methodology 1, the mortality was considered a dichotomous variable in a logistic model, assuming a value
of 1 for a dead tree and 0 for a living tree. In Methodology 2, the mortality probability was estimated by the group
of trees for each plot and for each measurement interval. After the analysis, it was observed that Methodology 2
provided more consistent mortality estimates when compared to the mortality estimated by Methodology 1.

Keywords: probability of mortality, uneven-aged forest, growth models.