Reis, Cristiano Rodrigues  Bueno, Marcelo Leandro  Rocha, Lucas Fernandes  Santos, Lidia Gabriella  Gorgens, Eric Bastos  <br/><br/>
Climate Change Influencing the Potential Distribution of a Brazilian Savanna Indicator Species 

<br/><br/> Publicação on-line; Bibliography p. 7-9 (53 ref.); 4 illus.; Summary (En) 
<br/><br/> <br/><br/>ABSTRACT<br/><br/>The objective of this study was to model the potential effect of future climate change on the<br/>distribution of a tree species indicator of Cerrado. For the modeling, we used 488 occurrence<br/>points of the species and also bioclimatic variables corresponding to 2050 and 2070, for the more<br/>optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All generated models were classified as consistent, getting<br/>an area under curve higher than 0.90. The current modeling of Connarus suberosus showed that<br/>88% of the area with a high probability of species occurrence is inside the Cerrado domain. Future<br/>projections suggest losses in the environmental suitability area around 40.8% and 44.8% in the<br/>optimistic scenario, 61.6% and 81.6% in the pessimistic scenario considering 2050 and 2070,<br/>respectively. Furthermore, we found a tendency of the C. suberosus to move in the Atlantic Forest<br/>direction. This modeling is an alert that the C. suberosus will suffer from future climate change.<br/><br/>Keywords: bioclimatic variable, Connarus suberosus, environmental suitability, Neotropical savanna, maximum entropy 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>CLIMA<br/>CERRADO<br/>MEIO AMBIENTE