02201nab a2200301 i 4500 BR-BrBNA 20260406083748.0 260406b2019 bl.qr|pooa||| 00| 0 eng | BR-BrBNA eng K10 P40 P01 Reis, Cristiano Rodrigues Bueno, Marcelo Leandro Rocha, Lucas Fernandes Santos, Lidia Gabriella Gorgens, Eric Bastos Climate Change Influencing the Potential Distribution of a Brazilian Savanna Indicator Species Publicação on-line; Bibliography p. 7-9 (53 ref.); 4 illus.; Summary (En) ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to model the potential effect of future climate change on the distribution of a tree species indicator of Cerrado. For the modeling, we used 488 occurrence points of the species and also bioclimatic variables corresponding to 2050 and 2070, for the more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All generated models were classified as consistent, getting an area under curve higher than 0.90. The current modeling of Connarus suberosus showed that 88% of the area with a high probability of species occurrence is inside the Cerrado domain. Future projections suggest losses in the environmental suitability area around 40.8% and 44.8% in the optimistic scenario, 61.6% and 81.6% in the pessimistic scenario considering 2050 and 2070, respectively. Furthermore, we found a tendency of the C. suberosus to move in the Atlantic Forest direction. This modeling is an alert that the C. suberosus will suffer from future climate change. Keywords: bioclimatic variable, Connarus suberosus, environmental suitability, Neotropical savanna, maximum entropy CLIMA CERRADO MEIO AMBIENTE 2929 347952 Rio de Janeiro-RJ Instituto de Florestas - UFRRJ 1994 2025-0451 Floresta e Ambiente (Brazil) 1415-0980 / ISSN 2179-8087 0nline v. 26(3) p. 1-9; (2019) BR2026000272 https://www.scielo.br/j/floram/a/Znbzf7r6JPpzpWLr3449Zvz/?format=pdf&lang=en ANA 341238 341238