Carvalho, Monica Canaan creator Gomide, Lucas Rezende creator Acerbi Júnior, Fausto Weimar creator Tng, David creator text periodical abstract or summary bl. continuing eng ABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate and map current and future ecological niche for E. erythropappus in Minas Gerais. We used the Random Forests algorithm to model the ecological niche for current and future climates scenarios. Our predictions indicate Espinhaço, Mantiqueira, and Canastra mountain ranges as core areas of distribution and forecast drastic reductions in potential areas under all climate scenarios. Based on our results, we highlight that the continual harvesting of naturally-occurring E. erythropappus populations will not be sufficient to supply the market demand. Silviculture practices would likely serve as an economically viable and ecological sustainable alternative to harvesting natural populations. Keywords: candeia trees, random forests, habitat suitability. Publicação on-line; Bibliography p. 11-13 (52 ref.); 3 tables; 5 illus.; Summary (En) CANDEIA FLORESTA HABITAT Rio de Janeiro-RJ Instituto de Florestas - UFRRJ 1994 2025-0451 1415-0980 / ISSN 2179-8087 0nline BR2026000303 v. 26(3) p. 1-13; (2019) https://www.scielo.br/j/floram/a/WcnZB95WxGCRfcGH47jjDZb/?format=pdf&lang=en https://www.scielo.br/j/floram/a/WcnZB95WxGCRfcGH47jjDZb/?format=pdf&lang=en BR-BrBNA 260408 20260408050904.0 eng