Piontekowski, Valderli Jorge Ribeiro, Fabiana Piontekowski  Matricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli  Lustosa Junior, Ilvan Medeiros  Bussinguer, Angela Pereira  Gatto, Alcides  <br/><br/>
Modeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia 

<br/><br/> Publicação on-line; 30 ref.; 7 illus.; Summary (En) 
<br/><br/> <br/><br/>ABSTRACT<br/><br/>This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three<br/>scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were<br/>constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia<br/>deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia<br/>State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on<br/>this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be<br/>fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios,<br/>respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially<br/>concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could<br/>be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario.<br/>In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.<br/><br/>Keywords: land use change, fragmentation, disorderly occupation. 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>USO DA TERRA<br/>OCUPAÇÃO<br/>DESMATAMENTO<br/>PRESERVAÇÃO DA NATUREZA