02187nab a2200289 i 4500003000900000005001700009008004100026040001800067072000800085100003300093100003500126100004300161100003600204100003200240100002000272245005400292500006000346520111000406650001701516650001701533650001701550650003201567773019001599856008101789942000801870999001901878BR-BrBNA20260408052230.0260408b2019    bl.qr|pooa||| 00| 0 eng |  aBR-BrBNAbeng  aP01  aPiontekowski, Valderli Jorge  aRibeiro, Fabiana Piontekowski   aMatricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli   aLustosa Junior, Ilvan Medeiros   aBussinguer, Angela Pereira   aGatto, Alcides   aModeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia  aPublicação on-line; 30 ref.; 7 illus.; Summary (En)  a

ABSTRACT

This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three
scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were
constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia
deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia
State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on
this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be
fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios,
respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially
concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could
be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario.
In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050.

Keywords: land use change, fragmentation, disorderly occupation.  aUSO DA TERRA  aOCUPAÇÃO  aDESMATAMENTO  aPRESERVAÇÃO DA NATUREZA0 029299347952dRio de Janeiro-RJ Instituto de Florestas - UFRRJ 1994o2025-0451tFloresta e Ambiente (Brazil)x1415-0980  /  ISSN 2179-8087 0nlinegv. 26(3) p. 1-11; (2019)wBR2026000309  uhttps://www.scielo.br/j/floram/a/8yHZYTRwrdssZxBtR5B7n6H/?format=pdf&lang=en  cANA  c341279d341279