Publicação on-line; Bibliography p. 7-9 (53 ref.); 4 illus.; Summary (En)

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to model the potential effect of future climate change on the
distribution of a tree species indicator of Cerrado. For the modeling, we used 488 occurrence
points of the species and also bioclimatic variables corresponding to 2050 and 2070, for the more
optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All generated models were classified as consistent, getting
an area under curve higher than 0.90. The current modeling of Connarus suberosus showed that
88% of the area with a high probability of species occurrence is inside the Cerrado domain. Future
projections suggest losses in the environmental suitability area around 40.8% and 44.8% in the
optimistic scenario, 61.6% and 81.6% in the pessimistic scenario considering 2050 and 2070,
respectively. Furthermore, we found a tendency of the C. suberosus to move in the Atlantic Forest
direction. This modeling is an alert that the C. suberosus will suffer from future climate change.

Keywords: bioclimatic variable, Connarus suberosus, environmental suitability, Neotropical savanna, maximum entropy