000			02225nab a2200301 i 4500
003			BR-BrBNA
005			20260408052230.0
008			260408b2019 bl.qr|pooa||| 00| 0 eng |
040			_aBR-BrBNA _beng
072			_aP01
100			_aPiontekowski, Valderli Jorge
100			_aRibeiro, Fabiana Piontekowski
100			_aMatricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli
100			_aLustosa Junior, Ilvan Medeiros
100			_aBussinguer, Angela Pereira
100			_aGatto, Alcides
245			_aModeling Deforestation in the State of Rondônia
500			_aPublicação on-line; 30 ref.; 7 illus.; Summary (En)
520			_a ABSTRACT This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050. Keywords: land use change, fragmentation, disorderly occupation.
650			_aUSO DA TERRA
650			_aOCUPAÇÃO
650			_aDESMATAMENTO
650			_aPRESERVAÇÃO DA NATUREZA
773	0		_02929 _9347952 _dRio de Janeiro-RJ Instituto de Florestas - UFRRJ 1994 _o2025-0451 _tFloresta e Ambiente (Brazil) _x1415-0980 / ISSN 2179-8087 0nline _gv. 26(3) p. 1-11; (2019) _wBR2026000309
856			_uhttps://www.scielo.br/j/floram/a/8yHZYTRwrdssZxBtR5B7n6H/?format=pdf&lang=en
942			_cANA
999			_c341279 _d341279